Research & Market Insights Market Insights

10.14 2013

September 2013 Market Commentary

Economy Despite headline news surrounding the US Federal Reserve and government shutdown, the US economy appeared to trend mostly positive for much of Q3.  While the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has trended in negative territory for most of the year, it recently trended into territory not seen since December 2012.  With that said, other…

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09.11 2013

August 2013 Market Commentary

Economy The US economy appeared to build some momentum during August. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index moved solidly into positive territory during the month, boosted by unexpected positive reports from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and the unemployment rate.  Data subsequent to these releases was fairly middling, however, as the economy struggles to find…

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08.07 2013

July 2013 Market Commentary

Economy The economy showed encouraging signs of growth throughout the month of July as a number of major economic indicators came in positive. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) remained in negative territory throughout the month, but has trended dramatically higher into positive territory over the previous week. This expansion into positive territory indicates that…

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07.11 2013

June 2013 Market Commentary

Economy The economy showed positive signs of growth through Q2 as economic data appeared to stabilize.  Volatility, as measured by both the S&P standard deviation and the VIX, picked up in the second half of the quarter as the Federal Reserve discussed tapering its bond-purchasing program.  The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI), which measures actual…

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06.11 2013

May 2013 Market Commentary

Economy Throughout the month of May, economic data came in negative as measured by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI).  Despite reversing its negative trend into positive territory towards the end of April, the CESI trended down for much of May.  The index ended the month in negative territory and has continued on the same…

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05.10 2013

April 2013 Market Commentary

Economy As April came to a close, economic data reversed its negative trend throughout the month, as represented by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index.  The index continued to show signs of weakening in April, but then turned positive going into May as economic data began to surprise on the upside. The ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing…

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04.12 2013

March 2013 1st Quarter Market Commentary

Economy As the first quarter came to a close, economic data turned slightly negative, as represented by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index.  The index trended up throughout February, but then turned negative over the course of March as economic data began to surprise to the downside.  The ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indices contributed to this…

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03.13 2013

February 2013 Market Commentary

Economy The pace of positive economic data improved in February.  A stunning personal income report along with improved ISM manufacturing figures and a steep drop in the trade deficit gave the economy a lift. Personal incomes jumped considerably in December, rising 2.6%. This was the biggest gain in eight years. The increase was attributable to…

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02.15 2013

January 2013 Market Commentary

Economy The pace of positive economic data weakened in January. While some reports have been relatively healthy, negative surprises such as home sales and Q4 GDP weighed on the economy. The first estimate of fourth quarter GDP revealed that the US economy contracted 0.1% during the period. This was the first contraction in more than…

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01.14 2013

December 2012 Market Commentary

Economy The pace of positive economic data remained strong but fluid in the fourth quarter. Volatility was partially the result of Hurricane Sandy, as the storm wreaked havoc on a number of economic data series and normal business activity was severely disrupted. One such indicator was retail sales, which bounced back in November posting a…

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